Novel Coronavirus until Tuesday (11/2/2020) has infected more than 40,000 people and caused 1,018 people to die. Although infection and death rates continue to increase, a number of researchers have predicted a scenario that might be the end of a novel coronavirus outbreak.
According to Amesh Adalja, a researcher as well as an infectious disease expert at the Johns Hopkins’ Center for Health Security, United States, an outbreak of coronavirus that is currently spreading has a variety of possibilities. The following are the theories stated by Adalja and a number of other researchers related to the end of the coronavirus outbreak.
Theory 1: Novel Coronavirus Outbreak Does not End
Based on data compiled by the Worldometer, the transmission rate of coronavirus is one of the fastest transmissions among viruses of its kind. As an illustration, one person infected with a coronavirus can infect 3 to 4 healthy people.
In fact, a patient in a hospital in Wuhan was reported to have spread the infection to more than 57 people. The rate of transmission is much faster than the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that broke out in 2003 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome(MERS) in 2013.
According to Amesh Adalja, a coronavirus novel outbreak might not have an end. This is based on a model of the spread of infection published in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine this year.
Referring to the model, the coronavirus is expected to infect more than 300,000 people on February 24, 2020. The 2019-nCoV coded virus is most likely to become a pandemic, a disease that attacks all parts of the world.
However, you do not need to panic although the coronavirus outbreak might not have an end. Adalja also put forward children from this first theory. Here is the picture:
1. The novel coronavirus never goes away, but it becomes a seasonal disease
2019-nCoV is part of a group of viruses called coronaviruses. Scientists so far have found seven types of coronavirus in humans. Some types only cause colds and flu, but some can trigger severe respiratory problems.
Novel Coronavirus outbreaks may not have an end, but this infection can become a seasonal disease as well as colds and flu. The flu virus lasts longer in cold temperatures. Once entering the summer or the dry season, the infection rate may decrease because the virus becomes weaker.
2. Coronavirus becomes a mild disease
Coronavirus is a virus that is very easily mutated. Besides making the virus stronger, mutations can also weaken the virus. Mutations may make the coronavirus weaker. So, the patients will only experience flu-like symptoms.
However, this possibility is doubted by Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist from Columbia University, USA. According to him, the coronavirus could be a virus similar to the virus that causes colds, but this is not the end of the plague and the process will take a long time.
Theory 2: The Infection Will Decreases by Itself
The 2019-nCoV outbreak is very similar to the SARS outbreak. Besides being both derived from bats, the two viruses also have 80% similarity in DNA. Scientists suspect that the end of the coronavirus outbreak will also be the same as the SARS outbreak.
During the SARS outbreak, health authorities in each country encouraged efforts to detect, examine, and isolate patients infected with SARS-CoV. These efforts aim to prevent the virus from multiplying. So, it goes away by itself.
The spread of SARS is decreasing after quarantine, travel restrictions, and checks at airports. Health authorities are also intensifying health campaigns to reduce the spread of the virus.
The governments of several countries are now doing the same way to reach the end of the coronavirus outbreak. If this step continues, the number of people who are vulnerable to infection will continue to decrease. So, the virus cannot spread more broadly.
The coronavirus novel will eventually have the same fate as H1N1, Zika, and SARS. The viruses are still around you, but there are very few and not many will be infected by it.
Theory 3: Vaccines are Available to Stop Infection
Until now, there is no vaccine available to end the endemic coronavirus outbreak. Vaccine development is still ongoing and researchers are constrained by the time, cost, and risk of side effects in patients.
Nevertheless, efforts to develop the SARS vaccine a dozen years ago are now a provision for researchers in making novel coronavirus vaccines. Thus, the vaccine development process may take a shorter time.
Some international drug companies are now even competing in developing a novel coronavirus vaccine. Some have developed it from the genetic code of the virus and some are testing drugs that are already available to see its effect on the coronavirus.
According to Anthony Fauci, head of the infectious disease center at the National Institutes of Health, the development of coronavirus vaccine will proceed quickly, so that it can bring an end to this outbreak.
While waiting for the emergence of the vaccine, the public can protect themselves from coronavirus outbreaks through prevention efforts. The simplest step that can be done now is to wash your hands regularly using clean water and soap.
Get Quick Medical Answer from a Doctor. Just Ask!
Have a medical problem? Connect one-on-one with verified Doctors online or by phone. Pediatricians and other specialists available 24/7.ASK A DOCTOR NOW!
In addition, everyone also needs to limit close contact with people who experience respiratory symptoms. Do not forget to wear a mask when you go outside. Choose a mask that can filter the air properly.
The end of a coronavirus novel outbreak may still not be seen. However, each party is currently trying hard to detect patients and prevent transmission. You can also play an active role by taking care of yourself and those closest to you.